Every January, the oldest and usually cheapest tier of imported cars in Kenya disappears.

That reset comes from an eight-year age limit set by the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) and listed by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) among its import conditions. Since 1st January 2026, KEBS has allowed only right-hand-drive vehicles first registered on or after 1st January 2019 into the country, and it rejects older arrivals at the importer’s expense.

If KEBS counts the calendar the same way next year, 2019 cars drop out of reach at the end of December, and 2020 becomes the oldest registration year you can import from 1st January 2027. That roll-forward is our reading of the rule. KEBS issued the 2026 cut-off notice on 13th November 2025, seven weeks before it took effect.

Because the oldest allowed imports are usually the cheapest on the yard, losing a model year tends to raise the entry price for buyers. If you are shopping for the cheapest imported car in 2027, you will be looking at 2020 models instead of 2019 ones. Importers face that same calendar squeeze alongside an unresolved tax fight: KRA charges duty, excise and VAT on a valuation table that is before the court.

On top of that annual reset, five claims are doing the rounds on why prices will jump in 2027: the pandemic-hit 2020 model year, discontinued models, the end of the 2019 CRSP tax list and its rulings, the August 2027 election and global uncertainty. We checked each of those five reasons against the public record, and looked at a proposed cut to the age limit that is not on the list and could move prices more than any of them.

The first claim comes down to factory output during the pandemic. In 2020, global vehicle production fell 16% to under 78 million units. Japan, which supplies about 80% of Kenya’s used imports, built 8,067,943 vehicles that year, 16.7% fewer than in 2019.

A 2020 car turns seven years old in 2027 and sits at the bottom of the importable range. That means next year’s cheapest imports will be drawn from a year when Japanese factories built fewer cars. How much that lifts yard prices depends on how many 2020 cars dealers can source.

The second claim points to discontinued models. Toyota stopped building the Corolla Axio sedan and Corolla Fielder wagon in Japan at the end of October 2025. A model that is no longer made tends to get dearer as clean used units are bought up.

Still, every Axio and Fielder built up to October 2025 stays legal to import until the age limit overtakes it. For a car first registered in 2025, that cut-off is 2032 if the eight-year rule holds. The end of the production line is more likely to squeeze supply later in the decade than in 2027.

When a used car is imported, KRA values it from the Current Retail Selling Price (CRSP) list, a table of what each make and model costs new, and depreciates that figure by age to get the customs value. KRA then charges duty, excise and VAT on that value. Because all three taxes sit on the same base, any change to the CRSP list changes the tax bill on every imported used car, whatever its age.

The last full update to that list was in 2019 and covered about 3,000 models. In May 2025, we reported that KRA planned to replace CRSP with invoice-based valuation from July. KRA published a revised CRSP list of more than 5,200 models instead, due to apply from 1st July 2025. KRA’s case for the revision was a shilling that had weakened from about KES 100 to about KES 130 per dollar since 2019, alongside import duty that rose from 25% to 35%.

On 30th June 2025, the day before the new schedule was meant to start, the High Court suspended KRA’s circular and public notice. On 7th September 2026, KRA said it would not comment on vehicle valuation because the matter is still before the court. That leaves the end of the 2019 list unsettled, and with it the figure on which a 2027 import will be taxed. (In August, we looked at how asking prices have moved while the tax rules remain contested.)

Importers also face a new paperwork rule at customs. Since 1st September 2026, they must hold an export declaration or equivalent document from the exporting country, which KRA says strengthens checks on declared values.

The general election is set for 10th August 2027, with party primaries due to finish by 9th May and the official campaign period running from 29th May.

The calendar is fixed, but we found no public document that ties Kenyan elections to car prices. The documented route runs through the shilling. When the currency rallied in the first half of 2024, prices of popular imported second-hand cars fell by double digits. A weaker shilling in 2027 would push them back up, and the exchange rate is how global uncertainty reaches a Kenyan buyer’s invoice.

The policy shift with the most potential to move 2027 prices is not on the five-point list at all. A proposed schedule would cut the age limit from eight years to five by 2027, three by 2029 and zero by 2030, which would end used imports altogether.

It is a proposal, not an active rule, and the Car Importers Association of Kenya has filed a memorandum of objection with KEBS. Counted the way the 2026 cut-off works, a five-year limit in 2027 would allow only cars first registered in 2023 or later. That would remove the 2020, 2021 and 2022 cars in one go. Those three years sit at the oldest end of the lot and are usually the cheapest. The importers’ association estimates that cutting the limit to between zero and three years could double or triple entry prices.

Of the five reasons doing the rounds, only the 2020 production drop and the CRSP court case have documents behind them that reach 2027 prices through supply and tax. The end of the Axio and Fielder bites later in the decade, while the election and global uncertainty matter mainly through the shilling. What decides your 2027 options first is the KEBS notice on the next registration cut-off, which sets which model years are allowed in.