LAMU BOAT INCIDENT/KENYA RED CROSS

The Kenya Meteorological Service has warned of dangerous sea conditions along the Kenyan coast, urging fishers, mariners and other sea users to exercise extreme caution over the next seven days.

The warning, contained in a marine forecast covering coastal and offshore waters in the western Indian Ocean region, is valid from October 25 to October 31.

“East-south-easterly to south-south-westerly winds are expected over the Kenya coastal and offshore waters, with speeds ranging from four to 24 knots (2–12 m/s),” the authority said in the forecast shared by Phillip Okello.

The forecast indicates that winds and sea conditions could range from relatively calm to rough and very rough in areas experiencing stronger winds and higher waves.

“Sea conditions are expected to range from light to rough, with locally very rough seas possible in areas experiencing stronger winds and higher waves,” the forecast states.

The authority advised mariners, fishers and other sea users to take extra precautions, particularly in areas expected to experience strong winds and rough seas.

Small boats and other vessels operating in exposed waters were urged to observe appropriate safety measures and closely monitor official marine weather updates.

The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization raises concerns over the potential strength of the current El Niño event, which could have significant implications for global weather patterns.

The WMO has projected that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8 degrees Celcius above average between November and January this year.

WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said the projected intensity was beyond the range of monitoring charts used over the past four decades.

“This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will be felt long after that,” she said.

The warning comes as Kenya enters the October-December short-rains season, a critical period for crop production, pasture and water supplies, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas.

El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5 degrees Celcius above average.

The phenomenon occurs when trade winds across the tropical Pacific weaken or reverse direction, allowing warm surface water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific rather than being pushed towards Asia.

A strong El Niño can disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall and flooding to others. It can also raise temperatures across large parts of the world.