Thunderstorms are forecast in 19 counties and six are expected to stay entirely dry over a five-day period, according to a national outlook covering 41 of Kenya’s 47 counties.

The outlook, issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department, states that no county is expected to record heavy rainfall during the period. Heavy rainfall is defined in the forecast as 21 to 50 millimetres falling within 24 hours.

The 19 counties at risk of thunderstorms are spread across Rift Valley and western Kenya. Bomet and Kisii could see thunder and lightning on each of the five days. Nakuru, Kericho, Kakamega and Migori are expected to have storms on four of the five days.

All 19 counties are forecast to experience thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. They are West Pokot, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya and Kisumu. Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira complete the list.

On the opposite end, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Trans Nzoia and Elgeyo/Marakwet are expected to remain dry for the entire forecast period.

Rain or showers are expected in 40 counties on Saturday. Moderate rainfall of 5 to 20 millimetres in 24 hours is forecast in 18 counties that day. In the morning, moderate rain is expected in Kwale, Taita/Taveta, Garissa and Makueni, while Mombasa and Kilifi are set for light showers.

The 18 counties with moderate Saturday rainfall include Nairobi, Kwale, Taita/Taveta, Garissa, Machakos, Makueni, Nyeri, Murang’a and Kiambu. Also on the list are Kajiado, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Siaya, Kisumu, Migori and Nyamira.

Nairobi will have sunny mornings and moderate showers on Saturday afternoon. Lighter showers are expected on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with sunny conditions throughout Monday. Temperatures in the capital are forecast to range between 14°C and 30°C.

Afternoon showers are expected across the Mt Kenya region, including Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru and Tharaka-Nithi. Nyeri may have moderate showers on Saturday and Tuesday, while Murang’a is set for moderate showers on Saturday and Wednesday.

Temperature extremes are also flagged. Turkana could reach 39°C on Tuesday, and Garissa, Wajir and Mandera are expected to hit 37°C on at least one day. On the cold side, Nyandarua may drop to 7°C on Sunday. Laikipia is forecast to reach 11°C on Sunday and Tuesday, and Kericho 11°C on Wednesday.

The department advised the public to use the five-day forecast alongside its daily 24-hour bulletins. County-specific outlooks are available from County Directors of Meteorological Services offices.