Kenya Met has forecast above-average rainfall across much of the country during the October–December 2026 short-rains season.
In a weather outlook dated August 26, 2026, the meteorological agency said the rains are expected to be fairly to well distributed across several parts of the country.
The Kenya Met forecast indicates prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms during the season.
“The “Short Rains” (October–November–December, OND) season is an important rainfall season in Kenya, especially over Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Machakos counties and parts of Kajiado and Tana River, where it contributes to over 40% of the total annual rainfall. More than 700 mm of rainfall is received in some parts of the country during this season,” the outlook stated.
Kenya Met Predicts Above-Average Rains
The forecast indicates above-average rainfall in more than 40 counties, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kakamega, Meru, Machakos, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera.
Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
The rainfall is projected to be fairly to well distributed across several parts of the country, although Turkana and Samburu are expected to have poor to fair distribution.
“The SPI forecast for the October–November–December (OND) 2026 season indicates that the probability of the occurrence of mild, moderate or severe drought events is low over most parts of the country. There is, however, a 15 to 20% chance of a mild drought event in Turkana,” the Kenya Met outlook warned.
KMSA also warns of prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms during the season.
Rainfall Onset Dates
In Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and several other western counties, the rains are expected to continue from September into January.
Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Laikipia and Tharaka-Nithi are expected to receive the onset between the second and third weeks of October, with rains continuing into January.
Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are expected to see the rains begin between the third and fourth weeks of October as per the Kenya Met Outlook.
| Counties | Expected Onset | Expected Cessation | Distribution |
| Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok | Continues from September | Continues into January | Fair to good |
| Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi | 2nd–3rd week of October | Continues into January | Fair to good |
| Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River County | 3rd–4th week of October | Continues into January | Fair to good |
| Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and Tana Delta | 2nd–3rd week of October | 1st–2nd week of December | Fair to good |
| Turkana and Samburu | 3rd–4th week of October | 1st week of December | Poor to fair |
| Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo | 2nd–3rd week of October | 1st–2nd week of December | Fair to good |
El Niño Strengthens as Warmer Temperatures Expected
Kenya Met reported that the 2026 El Niño event is continuing to intensify, with the weekly Niño 3.4 index reaching +2.7°C on August 12. The agency said the development indicates a shift toward a very strong El Niño event.
The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, but KMSA expects its index to potentially cross the positive threshold from September, although uncertainty remains over its timing and strength.
Mean temperatures are also forecast to be warmer than average during the OND season, particularly in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and parts of Tana River, Taita-Taveta and Garissa.
KMSA said the likelihood of mild, moderate, or severe drought is low across most of Kenya, although Turkana has a 15–20% chance of experiencing mild drought.
Govt Names Major Roads at Risk of Traffic Disruptions Ahead of El Niño Rains
Addressing the media on August 24, the National Disaster Operations Center Director Col (Rtd) David Samoei said the government plans to deploy boats to major water bodies to support movement and prevent transport disruptions during the expected El Niño rains.
Samoei said the Kenya Coast Guard and Kenya Navy would be involved in the operation.
“We will need to position boats on major water bodies, which means we will work with Kenya Coast Guard and Kenya Navy to ensure transport is not disrupted,” he said.
The Nairobi-Garissa-Wajir-Mandera route, Garissa-Tana River Road, Nairobi-Narok Road and Kericho-Kisumu route have been identified as key transport corridors at risk of flooding.
Additionally, the Northeastern region is expected to face some of the greatest risks, with Mandera, Wajir and Garissa identified as key hotspots.
Other areas of concern include Tana River, Kisumu, Migori and Busia in the Lake Basin region, Murang’a in Central Kenya, and Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Narok in the Rift Valley.
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