Major shift in Nyanza politics as senior leaders break ranks with Odinga family

Major shift in Nyanza politics as senior leaders break ranks with Odinga family - Treasury Cabinet Secretary (CS) John Mbadi. (Photo: Mbadi/Facebook)

According to political analyst Walter Opiyo, the debate over who attended or skipped the memorial could continue, but the real test of political loyalty will come with the 2027 General Election.

Nyanza's political trajectory could, for the first time, be reset following an open rift between leaders from the region and the Odinga family, which has been at the centre of its politics for decades.

Once indomitable, the family is facing open rebellion, with tensions escalating on Friday following public lamentations by National Treasury Cabinet Secretary (CS) John Mbadi over what he claimed was its "contempt" and “disrespect” towards leaders from the region.

Mbadi, alongside other Luo Nyanza government-aligned Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders, criticised Raila Odinga's widow, Ida, following the first anniversary commemoration of the former Prime Minister's passing, promising that 'there will be a major shift in the region's politics after the 2027 General Election'.

“We were following Raila Odinga because of his stand and sacrifice for us. The love we had for Raila cannot be transferred to anyone unless you convince us. Do not force us or push us to love you the way we loved Raila,” said Mbadi.

“After next year’s election you will see a different kind of politics. Some women must not think that it is only they who can give birth to leaders…In Nyanza, if someone is cheating that you can influence Luos not to support Ruto’s re-election, then you will be misled,” the CS added.

Mama Ida Odinga hosts the Linda Mwananchi team, led by Edwin Sifuna, at her Opoda Farm. (Photo: Sifuna/X)

Latest Stories

  • Nominated Senator Crystal Asige joins Winnie Odinga and Jalang’o in Nairobi Senate race
  • Tusker FC suffer home defeat as Singida strike puts CAF Confederation Cup hopes at risk
  • Ecuadorian priest dies after giant wooden crucifix crashes down on him during live-streamed Mass
  • Ebola infections among Kenyan health workers raise safety concerns after treating Patient Zero

Suna East Member of Parliament (MP) Junet Mohamed also accused critics of promoting jealousy and division under the guise of equity, pointing to the disquiet among government-aligned ODM members over how the anniversary was organised and Ida's invitation to Gachagua.

Responding to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who had earlier accused unnamed ODM politicians of betraying the party after missing the event due to a prior engagement in the United States, Junet argued that the former Deputy President’s political stance and Raila’s legacy did not embody the same spirit.

“Jana niliona list ya wale walioalikwa na Mama Ida Odinga, nikaona mtu anaitwa Gachagua. Nikasema, siwezi kukaa mahali pamoja na Gachagua. Pia, spirit ya Baba haiwezi kukaa na Gachagua,” Junet said, explaining why he skipped Thursday’s anniversary commemoration at Migwena Cultural Grounds in Bondo, Siaya County.

Migwena split

While the memorial was expected to be a solemn occasion to honour Raila, one of Kenya’s most consequential politicians, it instead turned into a political contest between ODM splinter factions, Linda Ground and Linda Mwananchi.

Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, Kisii Governor Simba Arati and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo led a notable Linda Ground contingent at the tense memorial, while Linda Mwananchi was represented by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Siaya Senator James Orengo, among others.

Also present were members of the Raila family, including his son Raila Odinga Jnr and youngest daughter Winnie, who announced at the event that she will vie for the Nairobi Senate seat in the 2027 elections.

The late ODM leader, Raila Odinga. (Photo: DW)

Wandayi and Arati addressed the gathering before leaving after delivering their speeches. Their appearances, however, were repeatedly punctuated by “Wantam” chants from sections of the crowd, prompting Arati to warn the youth who were heckling him.

“We know this game well,” Arati said before reading a speech prepared by ODM leader Oburu Oginga, who is hospitalised.

Despite the contest increasingly being framed around “Wantam” - the Opposition’s push for Ruto to serve one term and “Tutam” - the government camp’s bid for his re-election, political analyst Walter Opiyo cautioned against treating the event as a definitive indicator of Luo Nyanza’s political direction.

“The Bondo event cannot really be used as a standard measure of the current political standing of Luo Nyanza. However, the absence of key pro-government figures speaks volumes about why they skipped the event,” Opiyo said.

According to Opiyo, the debate over who attended or skipped the memorial could continue, but the real test of political loyalty will come with the 2027 General Election.

The four core counties of Luo Nyanza, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori overwhelmingly backed Raila in the 2022 presidential election.

According to official Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) data, the four counties recorded 1,559,244 valid votes (95.2 per cent), with Raila securing 1,484,509 votes against Ruto’s 82,470 (5.3 per cent).