The Math Behind Stock Prices: Why do Shares Go Up and Down?

Ever wondered why market shares fluctuate between 14 and 40 shillings, or why some stocks stay "stuck" for years? In this deep dive, we break down the math, science, and even the "criminology" behind price discovery at the global and local stock exchanges. We move beyond the basics of supply and demand to explore what actually shifts the needle in the Kenyan market. From fundamental assets (like towers and factories) to market sentiment (the "Elon Musk effect"), you’ll learn why some companies are "unmanipulatable" and how new financial information can cause a stock to gain or lose 10% in a single day. If you’ve been investing based on "vibes" or the old "buy and forget" mantra, this video is a wake-up call. We discuss the 2026 Bull Run, how to spot a drawdown before it happens, and why taking profits is just as important as buying in. What You’ll Learn: Price Discovery: The mechanism that determines an IPO price vs. daily market trading. The "Buy & Forget" Trap: Why passive investing in shares is a thing of the past. Fundamental vs. Sentimental: How to separate a company's real value from the social media hype. Market Outlook: Why the period between now and 2027 is critical for retail investors in Kenya. Alpha Returns: How to turn 1,000 Kes into a high-growth portfolio with only 1.6% commission. Chapters 0:00 The "Art and Science" of share prices 0:50 Big Players vs. Retail: Who actually moves the NSE? 1:45 Fundamentals: The real value of Safaricom & EABL assets 2:30 Sentimental Factors: Can a tweet crash a stock? 3:12 Why Safaricom is virtually impossible to manipulate 3:55 How financial results impact price (October 2025/2026 projections) 5:40 Audits & Regulation: Can companies "cook the books"? 7:30 Why "Buy and Forget" is dead in 2026 9:15 Case Study: The 42/= to 14/= Safaricom crash 10:55 The "Champagne Rule": When to take your profits 12:15 Dispelling the Myth: Is the NSE only for the rich? 13:05 2026-2027 Market Forecast: The Election Cycle effect If you found this helpful, don’t forget to Subscribe to The Kenyan Wall Street for new episodes every week! Find us on Afripods: https://afripods.com/podcast/its-just... Listen & Follow Just Money Podcast on ALL Platforms: YouTube: Subscribe here! Spotify- Just Money Podcast TikTok- Just Money Podcast Twitter/X-Just Moneypod Instagram- Just Money Podcast