The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast enhanced rainfall and strong winds in several parts of the country.
In a weather forecast dated September 21, 2026, KMSA said enhanced rainfall is expected in parts of western Kenya, along with rainfall in several other counties, from September 22–28, 2026.
“Enhanced Rainfall is expected over the western region (Kakamega, Vihiga and Bungoma counties),” KMSA stated.
Rainfall is also expected in parts of Kericho, Nandi, Kisumu, Baringo, Bomet, Homa Bay, Nakuru, Busia, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia.
Other counties expected to experience rainfall include Nyandarua, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Nairobi, Embu, Meru and Nyeri.
KMSA Forecasts Strong Winds in the Coastal Region
KMSA also forecast strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots, equivalent to 12.5 meters per second, in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera and Wajir.
The strong winds are also expected in parts of Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Kitui counties.
“Strong southerly to southeasterly winds of above 25 knots (12.5m/s) expected over parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Kitui Counties.”
Further, KMSA has forecast daytime average maximum temperatures above 30°C in several counties, including Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana.
The weather service also expects nighttime average minimum temperatures of below 10°C in some parts of Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nakuru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kajiado.
El Niño Strengthens as Kenya Steps Up Preparations
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data released on September 14, 2026, showed that El Niño had crossed the 2°C warming threshold in the central-eastern Pacific, classifying it as very strong.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was an almost 100% chance El Niño would persist through February 2027, with most models expecting it to peak around November–December 2026.
NOAA also put the probability of a very strong El Niño during the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere fall and winter at above 90%. The chance of the event becoming a historic or top-tier El Niño since 1950 was estimated at about 75%.
In Kenya, authorities intensified preparations for the October–November–December 2026 rainfall season on September 17, citing possible flooding, landslides and infrastructure disruption.
On September 18, Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku said resources had been pre-positioned in high-risk counties, including Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Marsabit, as well as parts of the coast and Rift Valley.
At least 18 counties have been placed on high alert, with contingency measures covering evacuation routes, temporary shelters, food, clean water, medical supplies and the clearing of drainage and river channels ahead of the rains.
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