Kenya’s record-high mob violence in 2025 raises fears of a deadly 2027 electioneering period

Kenya’s record-high mob violence in 2025 raises fears of a deadly 2027 electioneering period

A new ACLED report warns that vigilante mobs killed 963 civilians between January 2023 and October 2026, as political goon violence and retaliatory lynchings fuel fears of escalating insecurity ahead of Kenya’s 2027 elections.

Kenya has emerged as the world’s worst-hit country for retaliatory vigilante mob violence, with mobs lynching suspected criminals and other perceived wrongdoers, killing more civilians than any other armed group, including the police and military, a new report by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows.

Data collected between January 1, 2023, and October 2, 2026, shows that vigilante mobs killed 963 civilians, compared with 545 killed by identity militias. Political militias have been linked to 138 deaths, state forces to 89, and rebel groups to 85.

The report defines a vigilante mob as a crowd that forms spontaneously to pursue perceived justice, such as punishing suspected theft or witchcraft, with the intention of harming victims through violence.

Vigilante mobs differ from goons, who are recruited by political leaders to disrupt opposition rallies and demonstrations, provide security and use violence against political opponents.

According to the report, titled "Goon violence and retaliatory mob justice are escalating ahead of Kenya’s 2027 elections", vigilante mobs have become the deadliest category of armed group in the country in terms of civilian deaths.

However, the report notes that goon violence and retaliatory vigilante mob attacks frequently overlap, with both escalating in recent years as politicians increasingly co-opt local gangs and vigilante groups for private security and to disrupt opposition rallies.

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The groups, commonly referred to as goons, have also disrupted businesses, government agencies and non-profit organisations, particularly in Nairobi. In response, residents have increasingly resorted to mob violence as a form of retaliation.

Mob violence surges ahead of 2027 elections

ACLED found that vigilante mob violence rose exponentially from 2022, peaking in 2025 before declining in 2026.

"So far, the limited number of anti-government demonstrations this year has contributed to lower levels of goon and retaliatory vigilante mob violence than those recorded in 2025, but the overall level is on track to greatly exceed those of the previous year," the report says.

Overall, vigilante mob violence increased by 20 per cent in 2024 compared with the previous year, before surging by 46 per cent in 2025.

Researchers warn that the trend now presents one of Kenya’s most concerning security threats as the country approaches the 2027 General Election.

Goons are widely deployed during elections to influence voters’ candidate choices, manipulate polling stations, disperse meetings organised by rival political groups and provide security at political events.

In exchange for their services, recruits receive incentives such as cash, transport and weapons, as well as permission to loot local businesses.

"During periods of political support for goons, police often operate alongside these groups, carrying out violence or looting from businesses," the report says.

Similar incidents were reported in 2026, with officers allegedly participating in attacks, assisting goons or allowing them to operate without intervention.

Politicians have also used goons to gain an advantage over their rivals. Opposition candidates, the report says, have mobilised similar groups to provide security, attend rallies and attack ruling-party leaders.

"Collectively, these dynamics have contributed to the surge in both goon violence and retaliatory vigilante mob violence," the document shows.

The report cites the Ol Kalou by-election as another example of serving politicians and opposition figures deploying goons.

"By-election violence shows that the hiring of goons is a widespread, public phenomenon that poses a clear threat to the upcoming 2027 election cycle," the document adds.

ACLED further notes that goon violence has broken its traditional pattern of peaking mainly during election periods. Elevated levels of violence have persisted well beyond the 2022 elections, even as the country prepares for the next polls in 2027.

Nairobi remains a hotspot

The research found that vigilante mob violence had been recorded in 46 counties in 2026, affecting both urban and rural areas.

Nairobi remains the epicentre, with Starehe sub-county consistently recording the highest levels of vigilante mob violence in the capital.

"Starehe includes Nairobi’s central business district (CBD), where mobs frequently take justice into their own hands when criminals and suspected goons attempt to steal goods from local shops," the report shows.

Dagoretti North has also experienced frequent attacks, particularly around Kilimani, which has several commercial areas and lies close to the CBD violence hotspot.

Residents interviewed in Nairobi frequently expressed reluctance to report crime to the police. ACLED's data shows a growing number of cases in which locals instead resort to lynching suspected criminals.

However, some areas have recorded improvements. Kasarani, which experienced elevated levels of vigilante mob violence in previous years, particularly in 2022, has been less violent so far in 2026.

A similar trend has emerged in Mathare, a sub-county with a history of gang activity and major outbreaks of violence during previous elections. At least seven cases of vigilante mob violence were recorded there last year, compared with just one so far in 2026.

Disbanded gangs remain a security threat

The report warns that goon violence and retaliatory mob attacks are no longer confined to election periods or anti-government demonstrations, raising concerns about their lasting impact on public security.

Evidence shows that even after goons are disbanded, some continue operating without the direction of their former political patrons.

Attempts to dismantle the groups can also push former members into other criminal activities, including extortion, theft and the provision of informal security services, particularly in urban and peri-urban settlements.

The findings raise fresh concerns about the ability of security agencies to contain politically linked violence and retaliatory mob justice before the 2027 elections, as criminal groups continue to operate beyond the political events for which they were initially recruited.