The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast rainfall across 44 counties and dangerous sea conditions between October 22 and 29, 2026, warning that isolated storms could trigger flash floods in some areas.
In its seven-day forecast, KMSA said east-south-easterly to south-south-westerly winds are expected to blow at 4 to 24 knots (2–12 metres per second), with locally stronger winds possible along the Kenyan coast and offshore.
Sea conditions are forecast to range from light to rough, with very rough seas possible in areas experiencing stronger winds and higher waves.
Mariners, fishers and other sea users have been advised to exercise extreme caution, particularly in areas likely to experience rough to very rough seas and strong winds. Small boats and other vessels operating in exposed waters have also been urged to take appropriate safety precautions.
“Sea conditions are expected to range from light to rough, with locally very rough seas possible in areas experiencing stronger winds and higher waves,” weatherman warned.
KMSA listed Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, Meru, Embu, Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Laikipia, Machakos, Makueni, Migori, Murang’a, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot among the counties expected to receive rainfall.
Rainfall is also expected in some parts of Nairobi and Marsabit counties, although the distribution may vary across the affected areas.
“Isolated storms might be experienced over some parts of Mandera, Wajir, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale that might lead to flash floods,” KMSA warned.
KMSA Issues Advisory to Residents
The meteorological agency cautioned that isolated storms in parts of Mandera, Wajir, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale could lead to flash floods.
Residents were advised not to walk or drive through flooded roads, rivers, bridges, and other waterways.
Additionally, the weatherman urged residents to avoid sheltering under trees or standing near isolated tall structures during thunderstorms due to the risk of lightning strikes.
Drivers were asked to reduce speed, maintain a safe following distance and use headlights when visibility deteriorates.
Those living on or below steep slopes and unstable hillsides were advised to watch for signs of possible landslides, including cracks in the ground, leaning trees, unusual ground movement and sudden changes in water flow.
Meanwhile, farmers in areas receiving rainfall were encouraged to use the improved soil moisture for agricultural activities.
Detailed Weather Forecast
According to KMSA, coastal counties are expected to experience showers from Sunday, October 25, with moderate rainfall projected in parts of Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu on Monday, October 26.
Mombasa is expected to record maximum temperatures of between 30°C and 31°C during the forecast period, while Kilifi will experience highs of around 30°C. In Kwale, temperatures are expected to range between 29°C and 30°C.
In northeastern Kenya, Mandera is forecast to receive moderate rainfall on Sunday and Monday before lighter rains on Tuesday.
Wajir is also expected to experience rainfall from Monday, October 26, with moderate morning rains forecast for Tuesday.
Garissa is expected to receive light rain on Monday and Tuesday, while Marsabit could see light rain on Tuesday.
Rainfall and Thunderstorms in Western Kenya
Several counties in Western Kenya are expected to experience afternoon showers accompanied by thunder and lightning throughout parts of the forecast period.
Nandi and Kakamega are among the counties forecast to receive showers and thunderstorms from Friday, October 23, through Tuesday, October 27. Bungoma is also expected to experience afternoon showers, with moderate rainfall forecast for Tuesday.
Kericho is projected to receive afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the five days, while Kisii and Nyamira are expected to experience moderate showers on several days.
In Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Elgeyo Marakwet, showers accompanied by thunder and lightning are forecast on selected days, particularly Saturday, October 24, and Tuesday, October 27.
Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori are also expected to receive rainfall at different times during the period, with moderate showers forecast in Kisumu on Tuesday.
Nairobi Weather Forecast
Nairobi is expected to experience sunny intervals during the mornings on most days, with light rain forecast for Tuesday, October 27.
Afternoon conditions are expected to remain largely sunny on Friday, October 23, through Sunday, October 25, before light showers develop on Monday and Tuesday.
Nighttime conditions are forecast to be partly cloudy, with light showers expected on Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures in Nairobi are expected to reach a maximum of 31°C on Friday before dropping to around 29°C on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum temperatures are forecast to range between 15°C and 17°C.
Temperatures Across the Country
Turkana is expected to remain among the hottest areas, with maximum temperatures ranging from 37°C to 38°C throughout the five-day period.
Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera are also forecast to record daytime highs of 34°C to 36°C.
In contrast, Nyandarua is expected to record minimum temperatures of 8°C to 9°C, while Laikipia could see overnight lows of 10°C to 13°C.
The forecast indicates that weather conditions will vary across counties, with sunny intervals expected in several areas even as showers develop at different times of the day.
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