CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) top policy-making organ, the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC), is scheduled to hold its next meeting on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.

This meeting comes amid significant developments on the global economy, including a recent decision by the US Fed to hike the policy rate to between 3.5% and 4%, the first time since July 2023.

Closer home, the South African Reserve Bank raised the policy rate at its September meeting. Inflation concerns remained during the week ending September 24th. The South Africa headline inflation rose to 4.4% in August 2026 from 4.3%% in July 2026, and remained above the 3% target.

The South African Reserve Bank(SARB) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its September 23rd meeting, as inflationary pressures remained elevated on account of high energy prices, the second such hike this year since May.

According to the SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago, the MPC had little choice due to oil price shocks due to the Middle East crisis and Yemen red sea disruptions.

CBK DATA AND INFLATION NUMBERS

The latest Weekly CBK statistical bulletin shows that Murban crude oil prices rose to US$ 97.36 per barrel on September 24th, from US$ 94.70 per barrel on September 17, due to oil supply concerns attributed to the conflict in the Middle East.

While most analysts do not expect a hike in the Central Bank Rate(CBR) when the MPC meets next month, there is a growing number titling towards a small hike move by CBK.

Kenya’s monthly inflation rose to 6.6% in August compared to 6.5% in July, still within the CBK target 2.5%-7.5% range.

CBK is likely to HOLD gain in October because growth in GDP has weakened hence a hike could hurt growth.

Private sector credit just recovered to 10.2% in July from negative 2.9% in January 2025-so hiking the cost of credit will kill that. Data shows that Kenya’s foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at US$ 15,042 million (6.1 months of import cover) as of September 24th 2026. This meets CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavour to maintain at least 4 months of import cover.

At 8.75% currently, NCBA and Kenya Bankers Association forecast the CBR to end the year between 8.5% and 8.75%, that is HOLD or even cut.

Other analysts foresee CBK being forced to hike the policy rate were the price of crude oil cruise past the US$100 per barrel. Further, any food inflation increases were the anticipated October-December rains fail, will force the CBK to act. If inflation jumps above 7% in September, this could set off alarm signals at the CBK.