As Kenya enters September, the country is set to transition from the cool, dry weather of June through August toward the short-rains season expected later in the year. The latest monthly forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) indicates that most parts of the country will remain generally dry, with localized rainfall confined largely to coastal areas and parts of western Kenya.

Rainfall distribution throughout September will vary significantly depending on the region, with below-average precipitation anticipated in key agricultural zones:

  • Western Kenya and the Rift Valley: Counties including Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Uasin Gishu, Kisumu, Kericho, and Kisii are expected to record below-average rainfall.
  • Coastal Strip and Select Eastern Portions: Near-average rainfall is predicted for Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, and parts of Tana River, Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa.
  • Central Highlands and South-Eastern Lowlands: Areas such as Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Meru, Machakos, and Kajiado will experience predominantly sunny and dry conditions, interspersed with occasional rainfall.
  • Northern Kenya: Isiolo, Turkana, and Samburu counties will remain mostly sunny and dry throughout the month.

The month will begin with relatively cool temperatures in the first half before shifting to warmer conditions in the second half. Overall, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the country, with the highest temperatures concentrated in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Turkana, and Samburu.

Additionally, strong southerly to south-easterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.86 m/s) are forecasted for the first half of September across northern, eastern, and coastal regions. These strong gusts could affect light structures, maritime activities, and local transport.

While lower rainfall in western Kenya will create favorable conditions for crop harvesting and drying, dry spells in Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) counties, such as Laikipia, Kitui, Machakos, Marsabit, and Garissa, are expected to cause pasture and water shortages. Farmers and livestock keepers in these zones are advised to prepare early for sustained dry weather.

Drivers and aviation operators in Nairobi and the Central Highlands should anticipate reduced visibility due to morning fog. On the coast, intermittent rains may cause slippery road conditions in Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, and Lamu.

Dusty conditions accelerated by high winds are likely to trigger respiratory issues and eye infections, particularly in dry areas. Meanwhile, counties already under drought stress—including Isiolo, Garissa, Turkana, Baringo, and West Pokot—face continued pressure on food security, livestock productivity, and water supplies.

Water catchments around Mt. Elgon and the Mau Escarpment are projected to receive below-average rainfall, while Mt. Kenya will remain largely dry. The reduction in water inflows may impact dam levels along major hydroelectric power generation schemes.