The National Disaster Operations Centre has warned that El Niño rains could disrupt transportation along several key traffic corridors across the country.
Addressing the media on August 24, the National Disaster Operations Centre Director Col (Rtd) David Samoei said the government plans to deploy boats to major water bodies to support movement and prevent transport disruptions during the expected El Niño rains.
Samoei said the Kenya Coast Guard and Kenya Navy would be involved in the operation.
“We will need to position boats on major water bodies, which means we will work with Kenya Coast Guard and Kenya Navy to ensure transport is not disrupted,” he said.
El Niño Rains to Disrupt Key Routes
The Nairobi-Garissa-Wajir-Mandera route, Garissa-Tana River Road, Nairobi-Narok Road and Kericho-Kisumu route have been identified as key transport corridors at risk of flooding.
Additionally, the Northeastern region is expected to face some of the greatest risks, with Mandera, Wajir and Garissa identified as key hotspots.
Other areas of concern include Tana River, Kisumu, Migori and Busia in the Lake Basin region, Murang’a in Central Kenya, and Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Narok in the Rift Valley.
Kenya Red Cross Secretary General Ahmed Idris has warned that communities in Tana River, the Lake Basin and urban informal settlements could face heightened risks from the expected El Niño rains.
Idris said Tana River has repeatedly experienced drought and flooding, while rising lake levels have displaced communities in the Lake Basin.
He added that urban informal settlements have also been identified as areas of concern because of their vulnerability to flooding.
“Looking at counties like Tana River that have been fluctuating between drought and floods, we are worried about counties in the lake region that have had a number of years of displacement because of the rising lake situation. We’re worried about communities in urban areas, in the informal settlements,” he said.
Idris said security agencies, including the Kenya Defence Forces, may be required to support efforts to keep transport routes open and maintain movement during the rainy period.
Global Weather Forecast
On the other hand, the Kenya Meteorological Department Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Maina Muriuki said global weather models indicate a high probability of a strong El Niño, with some forecasting centres putting the likelihood at more than 80 percent.
Muriuki said other forecasts have placed the probability at 90 percent, with some indicating an even higher likelihood of the weather phenomenon occurring.
He added that El Niño conditions are already in place and have contributed to the weather currently being experienced in the country.
“The global models and other scientists we included have noticed that the probability of having a strong El Niño is above 80 percent; actually, some forecasting centers place it at 90 percent as very, very strong and 99 percent that it will be there. So yes, El Niño is in place, and that is what has caused the weather we’ve seen so far,” he said.
El Niño Timelines
On June 12, KMD warned that Kenya could experience enhanced rainfall from October to December, driven by an expected El Niño event.
KMD Assistant Director Hannah Kimani said the forecast at the time indicated an 80 percent probability of El Niño developing during the October-November-December rainfall season.
Kimani said the department had recorded a high likelihood of an El Niño signal during the October to December rainfall period.
She added that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could compound the situation, as it was neutral at the time but expected to turn positive from July.
She explained that the combination of the anticipated El Niño and positive IOD could trigger above-normal rainfall in parts of the country, increasing the risk of floods and related disasters.
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